Will new Myanmar sanctions make a difference?

In a coordinated move underscoring the West’s condemnation of Myanmar’s military regime, the EU, UK and Canada last week imposed another round of sanctions on the brutal junta. This action follows reports that the military government has intensified its crackdown on civilians, committing systematic and escalating killings that amount to what many view as crimes against humanity.

While the sanctions aim to penalize the military regime and prevent it from acquiring equipment essential to maintaining its violent control, questions remain about how effective they will be in both pressuring the junta and practically impacting its capacity to wage violence.

With Myanmar now suffering under one of the most oppressive military dictatorships in recent memory, this round of sanctions comes as an attempt to isolate the junta internationally. But, as history has shown, while sanctions may curtail some activities, they often fail to deliver the transformative political pressure needed to instigate real change. In the case of Myanmar, achieving such an outcome will be even more challenging given the regime’s adaptability and its deep ties with supportive regional powers.

Since the coup d’etat in February 2021, Myanmar’s military, known as the Tatmadaw, has moved swiftly to dismantle any form of democratic resistance. Peaceful protests were met with brutal crackdowns, arrests and a propaganda campaign that demonized anyone opposed to the military’s rule. The junta’s campaign has continued to escalate, with an estimated 4,000 civilians killed, including dozens of children, while thousands more have been arbitrarily detained, tortured or subjected to forced labor.

While sanctions may curtail some activities, they often fail to deliver transformative political pressure

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Human rights groups and journalists have reported that the Myanmar military has shifted from conventional warfare to methods characteristic of a police state, terrorizing its own people in a bid to cement absolute control. Reports of villages being burned, summary executions and widespread displacement paint a horrifying picture of a state willing to use unrestrained violence. In recent months, this intensified brutality has forced the EU, UK and Canada to intervene more assertively, with the latest sanctions underscoring their commitment to holding the junta accountable.

The sanctions are aimed at curtailing the junta’s military capabilities and impeding its ability to source equipment for oppression. They target companies associated with Myanmar’s military conglomerates, particularly the Myanmar Economic Corporation and the Myanmar Economic Holdings Limited, which have provided the junta with significant revenue to fund their operations. These measures also ban the export of dual-use technology to Myanmar that could be repurposed for surveillance, cyberwarfare or military operations, as well as components crucial to weapons systems.

The objectives of these sanctions are twofold. On the one hand, they aim to squeeze the junta financially, cutting off the sources of revenue that fund its repressive apparatus. On the other hand, they seek to limit the military’s access to technology and equipment that enhance its surveillance and offensive capabilities. In theory, this combination should stymie the junta’s operations, forcing it to turn its focus inward on dwindling resources rather than outward on political repression.

The efficacy of sanctions against authoritarian regimes is a topic that stirs considerable debate and Myanmar’s military government is no exception. While sanctions can certainly impose economic costs and logistical hurdles, the Tatmadaw has shown an almost preternatural ability to insulate itself from international pressure. A large part of this is due to its entrenched connections with powerful allies such as China and Russia. Both countries have consistently undermined Western-led efforts to isolate Myanmar, providing the regime with both direct support and indirect channels for sanctioned goods.

China, which shares a long border with Myanmar, has been a crucial ally for the junta. This relationship has given the Tatmadaw access to supplies, resources and even intelligence support to help it weather the storm of international scrutiny. Similarly, Russia’s open arms policy toward the junta has provided it with essential military hardware and expertise, with Russian-made helicopters, jets and artillery systems playing a significant role in the crackdown. As long as these nations provide alternative channels, the impact of Western sanctions will be limited.

The Tatmadaw has shown an almost preternatural ability to insulate itself from international pressure

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Furthermore, Myanmar’s military conglomerates are intertwined with almost every sector of the economy, allowing them to generate revenue through domestic means even as international business declines. The military has also developed complex networks for smuggling and black market trade, making it adept at circumventing restrictions and obtaining key resources illicitly.

While economic sanctions may have limited impact on the military’s material capabilities, they could still serve to weaken the junta politically. The Tatmadaw depends on a degree of internal legitimacy to maintain its dominance and international isolation risks undermining this. By openly aligning with pariah states while the West targets it with sanctions, the junta is inadvertently eroding its standing among Myanmar’s populace. As the general public continues to suffer under economic hardship, resentment against the military grows. Prolonged sanctions may amplify domestic opposition, especially if economic isolation contributes to inflation, food shortages and a failing economy.

One key aspect often overlooked in sanctions regimes is the need for proactive support for democratic resistance within Myanmar. The national unity government, formed by members of Myanmar’s ousted democratic leadership, and ethnic resistance organizations are critical voices for the people. Western nations must consider providing financial and logistical aid to these groups, allowing them to build a counterforce to the junta from within. For the people of Myanmar, who have faced more than three long years of relentless state violence, such support could prove invaluable.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim